Iran’s post-February 2026 war environment, marked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination and subsequent leadership transition to his son Mojtaba, has intensified factional rivalries within the Islamic Republic. As of mid-July 2026, hardline lawmakers publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of orchestrating a “soft coup” or sidelining Mojtaba amid US truce talks and internal power consolidation efforts, with IRGC elements reportedly gaining influence over decision-making. These claims coincide with economic strain, ongoing protests, and disputed negotiations on issues like Strait of Hormuz access, heightening uncertainty over whether external regime-change pressures or domestic military-clerical shifts will produce a verifiable coup attempt before year-end resolution windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,115,813 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
11%
$2,115,813 交易量
12月31日
$74,587 交易量
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 war environment, marked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination and subsequent leadership transition to his son Mojtaba, has intensified factional rivalries within the Islamic Republic. As of mid-July 2026, hardline lawmakers publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of orchestrating a “soft coup” or sidelining Mojtaba amid US truce talks and internal power consolidation efforts, with IRGC elements reportedly gaining influence over decision-making. These claims coincide with economic strain, ongoing protests, and disputed negotiations on issues like Strait of Hormuz access, heightening uncertainty over whether external regime-change pressures or domestic military-clerical shifts will produce a verifiable coup attempt before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,115,813结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 war environment, marked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination and subsequent leadership transition to his son Mojtaba, has intensified factional rivalries within the Islamic Republic. As of mid-July 2026, hardline lawmakers publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of orchestrating a “soft coup” or sidelining Mojtaba amid US truce talks and internal power consolidation efforts, with IRGC elements reportedly gaining influence over decision-making. These claims coincide with economic strain, ongoing protests, and disputed negotiations on issues like Strait of Hormuz access, heightening uncertainty over whether external regime-change pressures or domestic military-clerical shifts will produce a verifiable coup attempt before year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,115,813结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-February 2026 war environment, marked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination and subsequent leadership transition to his son Mojtaba, has intensified factional rivalries within the Islamic Republic. As of mid-July 2026, hardline lawmakers publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of orchestrating a “soft coup” or sidelining Mojtaba amid US truce talks and internal power consolidation efforts, with IRGC elements reportedly gaining influence over decision-making. These claims coincide with economic strain, ongoing protests, and disputed negotiations on issues like Strait of Hormuz access, heightening uncertainty over whether external regime-change pressures or domestic military-clerical shifts will produce a verifiable coup attempt before year-end resolution windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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