Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a major transition in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei’s death in February during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor under Article 111 procedures. The new leader has since operated primarily through written directives and private consultations, including October 2026 meetings with senior military, parliamentary, and judicial figures that signaled efforts to assert authority and maintain institutional continuity amid the ongoing conflict. Recent November statements indicate Mojtaba has expanded the government’s mandate for diplomatic talks on ending hostilities, including conditions tied to sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access, while directing military readiness. Trader assessments of further change by upcoming resolution dates hinge on these stabilization signals, internal elite cohesion, health-related uncertainties around the new leader, and external developments such as U.S. midterm outcomes or negotiation breakthroughs that could either reinforce or pressure the current arrangement.