The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during US-Israeli strikes in late February 2026 triggered Iran's constitutional succession process through the Assembly of Experts, leading to Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as the new leader in March amid wartime conditions. Recent October consultations with senior officials on military readiness, national security, and institutional continuity have reinforced perceptions of consolidated authority, while ongoing conflict, economic pressures, and the new leader's limited public appearances sustain uncertainty around potential further shifts. The Assembly's reported majority consensus and temporary leadership council arrangements during the transition continue to inform trader assessments of stability versus additional change within resolution timelines.