Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March. Power has since shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba maintaining a low public profile amid reports of injuries and limited appearances. Ongoing diplomatic talks, domestic protests, and questions over decision-making authority have kept markets focused on potential further transitions before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh these structural changes against constitutional succession rules and the regime’s track record of rapid consolidation during crises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,698,530 交易量
2026-12-31
5月31日
7%
6月30日
13%
12月31日
34%
$13,698,530 交易量
5月31日
$2,005,144 交易量
7%
6月30日
$1,099,136 交易量
13%
12月31日
$2,398,370 交易量
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March. Power has since shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba maintaining a low public profile amid reports of injuries and limited appearances. Ongoing diplomatic talks, domestic protests, and questions over decision-making authority have kept markets focused on potential further transitions before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh these structural changes against constitutional succession rules and the regime’s track record of rapid consolidation during crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
交易量
$13,698,530结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March. Power has since shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba maintaining a low public profile amid reports of injuries and limited appearances. Ongoing diplomatic talks, domestic protests, and questions over decision-making authority have kept markets focused on potential further transitions before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh these structural changes against constitutional succession rules and the regime’s track record of rapid consolidation during crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$13,698,530结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in March. Power has since shifted toward a collective of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba maintaining a low public profile amid reports of injuries and limited appearances. Ongoing diplomatic talks, domestic protests, and questions over decision-making authority have kept markets focused on potential further transitions before year-end deadlines. Traders weigh these structural changes against constitutional succession rules and the regime’s track record of rapid consolidation during crises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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