Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a crowded field of established nationalist parties ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show it polling between four and six seats in some surveys, enough to clear the 3.25% threshold, while earlier post-launch results placed it below or near that line, reflecting volatility as it draws support mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have warned against splitting the bloc with small parties, adding pressure on undecided right-leaning voters. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a sub-2.5% finish, underscoring skepticism about sustained momentum in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于2.5% 44%
3.25-4% 38%
2.5-3.25% 22%
5%+ 16%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
44%
2.5-3.25%
22%
3.25-4%
38%
4-5%
20%
5%+
16%
少于2.5% 44%
3.25-4% 38%
2.5-3.25% 22%
5%+ 16%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
$20 交易量
44%
2.5-3.25%
$0 交易量
22%
3.25-4%
$38 交易量
38%
4-5%
$13 交易量
20%
5%+
$91 交易量
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a crowded field of established nationalist parties ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show it polling between four and six seats in some surveys, enough to clear the 3.25% threshold, while earlier post-launch results placed it below or near that line, reflecting volatility as it draws support mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have warned against splitting the bloc with small parties, adding pressure on undecided right-leaning voters. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a sub-2.5% finish, underscoring skepticism about sustained momentum in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
交易量
$163结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a crowded field of established nationalist parties ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show it polling between four and six seats in some surveys, enough to clear the 3.25% threshold, while earlier post-launch results placed it below or near that line, reflecting volatility as it draws support mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have warned against splitting the bloc with small parties, adding pressure on undecided right-leaning voters. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a sub-2.5% finish, underscoring skepticism about sustained momentum in the final weeks.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$163结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETAmcha Yisrael, the right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a crowded field of established nationalist parties ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Recent polls show it polling between four and six seats in some surveys, enough to clear the 3.25% threshold, while earlier post-launch results placed it below or near that line, reflecting volatility as it draws support mainly from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters. Netanyahu and other right-wing leaders have warned against splitting the bloc with small parties, adding pressure on undecided right-leaning voters. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to a sub-2.5% finish, underscoring skepticism about sustained momentum in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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