Recent polls conducted after Israeli parties finalized candidate lists in early September show Otzma Yehudit projected to win 6-9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5-7.5% of the national vote. The fragmented race between Likud, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, and other right-wing and centrist lists has kept smaller parties’ shares volatile, with limited movement in the final weeks before the October 27 election. Otzma Yehudit’s efforts to disqualify Ra’am and signals that Benjamin Netanyahu may pursue a broader coalition have introduced uncertainty over the party’s post-election leverage and voter consolidation on the right. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 4.5-7.5% range in trader assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.5-5.5% 42%
5.5-6.5% 34%
6.5-7.5% 33%
低于4.5% 20%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
20%
4.5-5.5%
42%
5.5-6.5%
34%
6.5-7.5%
36%
7.5%及以上
35%
4.5-5.5% 42%
5.5-6.5% 34%
6.5-7.5% 33%
低于4.5% 20%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于4.5%
$26 交易量
20%
4.5-5.5%
$13 交易量
42%
5.5-6.5%
$78 交易量
34%
6.5-7.5%
$114 交易量
36%
7.5%及以上
$312 交易量
35%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Israeli parties finalized candidate lists in early September show Otzma Yehudit projected to win 6-9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5-7.5% of the national vote. The fragmented race between Likud, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, and other right-wing and centrist lists has kept smaller parties’ shares volatile, with limited movement in the final weeks before the October 27 election. Otzma Yehudit’s efforts to disqualify Ra’am and signals that Benjamin Netanyahu may pursue a broader coalition have introduced uncertainty over the party’s post-election leverage and voter consolidation on the right. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 4.5-7.5% range in trader assessments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$543结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after Israeli parties finalized candidate lists in early September show Otzma Yehudit projected to win 6-9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5-7.5% of the national vote. The fragmented race between Likud, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, and other right-wing and centrist lists has kept smaller parties’ shares volatile, with limited movement in the final weeks before the October 27 election. Otzma Yehudit’s efforts to disqualify Ra’am and signals that Benjamin Netanyahu may pursue a broader coalition have introduced uncertainty over the party’s post-election leverage and voter consolidation on the right. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 4.5-7.5% range in trader assessments.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$543结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETRecent polls conducted after Israeli parties finalized candidate lists in early September show Otzma Yehudit projected to win 6-9 Knesset seats, translating to roughly 5-7.5% of the national vote. The fragmented race between Likud, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, and other right-wing and centrist lists has kept smaller parties’ shares volatile, with limited movement in the final weeks before the October 27 election. Otzma Yehudit’s efforts to disqualify Ra’am and signals that Benjamin Netanyahu may pursue a broader coalition have introduced uncertainty over the party’s post-election leverage and voter consolidation on the right. These factors sustain tight probabilities across the 4.5-7.5% range in trader assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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