**Recent polling averages place Ra'am at roughly 4–6 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys showing it near five.** This narrow band keeps probabilities for four, five, six, or seven seats closely bunched because Arab-voter turnout and the split between Ra'am and the Joint List remain variable factors in final results. Ra'am’s surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, finalized in mid-September, reduces wasted votes and supports modest gains, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in the second slot aims to broaden appeal among both Arab and Jewish voters. Party leader Mansour Abbas has publicly targeted seven seats to position Ra’am as a potential coalition kingmaker. Voter surveys through mid-September continue to cluster Ra’am in the four-to-six range, with limited movement in the past month. The outcome hinges on Arab-sector turnout, any late shifts in preference between the two Arab lists, and whether residual campaign dynamics alter the current polling consensus reflected in trader prices.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4 29%
5 27%
6 25.0%
7 14.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于4个席位
12%
4
29%
5
27%
6
25%
7
18%
8+
5%
4 29%
5 27%
6 25.0%
7 14.0%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于4个席位
$1,118 交易量
12%
4
$1,827 交易量
29%
5
$1,439 交易量
27%
6
$1,617 交易量
25%
7
$1,127 交易量
18%
8+
$940 交易量
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place Ra'am at roughly 4–6 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys showing it near five.** This narrow band keeps probabilities for four, five, six, or seven seats closely bunched because Arab-voter turnout and the split between Ra'am and the Joint List remain variable factors in final results.
Ra'am’s surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, finalized in mid-September, reduces wasted votes and supports modest gains, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in the second slot aims to broaden appeal among both Arab and Jewish voters. Party leader Mansour Abbas has publicly targeted seven seats to position Ra’am as a potential coalition kingmaker.
Voter surveys through mid-September continue to cluster Ra’am in the four-to-six range, with limited movement in the past month. The outcome hinges on Arab-sector turnout, any late shifts in preference between the two Arab lists, and whether residual campaign dynamics alter the current polling consensus reflected in trader prices.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Sep 4, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$8,067结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 6:14 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place Ra'am at roughly 4–6 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys showing it near five.** This narrow band keeps probabilities for four, five, six, or seven seats closely bunched because Arab-voter turnout and the split between Ra'am and the Joint List remain variable factors in final results.
Ra'am’s surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, finalized in mid-September, reduces wasted votes and supports modest gains, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in the second slot aims to broaden appeal among both Arab and Jewish voters. Party leader Mansour Abbas has publicly targeted seven seats to position Ra’am as a potential coalition kingmaker.
Voter surveys through mid-September continue to cluster Ra’am in the four-to-six range, with limited movement in the past month. The outcome hinges on Arab-sector turnout, any late shifts in preference between the two Arab lists, and whether residual campaign dynamics alter the current polling consensus reflected in trader prices.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Arab List (Ra'am) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$8,067结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 4, 2026, 6:14 PM ET**Recent polling averages place Ra'am at roughly 4–6 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with most surveys showing it near five.** This narrow band keeps probabilities for four, five, six, or seven seats closely bunched because Arab-voter turnout and the split between Ra'am and the Joint List remain variable factors in final results. Ra'am’s surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, finalized in mid-September, reduces wasted votes and supports modest gains, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in the second slot aims to broaden appeal among both Arab and Jewish voters. Party leader Mansour Abbas has publicly targeted seven seats to position Ra’am as a potential coalition kingmaker. Voter surveys through mid-September continue to cluster Ra’am in the four-to-six range, with limited movement in the past month. The outcome hinges on Arab-sector turnout, any late shifts in preference between the two Arab lists, and whether residual campaign dynamics alter the current polling consensus reflected in trader prices.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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