Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.25-4% 27%
低于3.25% 23%
4-4.75% 21%
4.75-5.5% 18%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于3.25%
23%
3.25-4%
27%
4-4.75%
22%
4.75-5.5%
18%
5.5%+
8%
3.25-4% 27%
低于3.25% 23%
4-4.75% 21%
4.75-5.5% 18%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
低于3.25%
$168 交易量
23%
3.25-4%
$167 交易量
27%
4-4.75%
$619 交易量
22%
4.75-5.5%
$140 交易量
18%
5.5%+
$175 交易量
8%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
交易量
$1,269结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$1,269结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETRecent polling for Israel's October 27 election shows Ra'am projected at 4–5 seats, consistent with a 3.25–4.75% vote share range that accounts for most market probability. The party's decision to run independently after finalizing its split from the Islamic Movement and the re-formed Joint List has concentrated its support among voters favoring pragmatic engagement, while the addition of former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz to the slate introduces uncertainty over potential crossover appeal and turnout effects among Arab and moderate voters. Arab parties overall continue to poll near 11–12 seats, but internal competition and the 3.25% threshold create tight margins for Ra'am specifically. Trader pricing reflects these variables, with limited recent shifts in surveys released after candidate lists closed on September 8–9.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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