Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21-25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from voter fatigue after years of coalition governance, backlash to the judicial overhaul, and fallout from the October 7 attacks amid ongoing security challenges. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has frequently led or tied Likud in surveys, while broader opposition blocs often approach or exceed 60 seats. Internal Likud primaries and coalition strains have further highlighted fragmentation on the right. These trends underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats, though final results depend on turnout, Arab party performance, and late campaign shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于88% 概率
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-10-27
88% 概率
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-10-27
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21-25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from voter fatigue after years of coalition governance, backlash to the judicial overhaul, and fallout from the October 7 attacks amid ongoing security challenges. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has frequently led or tied Likud in surveys, while broader opposition blocs often approach or exceed 60 seats. Internal Likud primaries and coalition strains have further highlighted fragmentation on the right. These trends underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats, though final results depend on turnout, Arab party performance, and late campaign shifts.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$11,080结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21-25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from voter fatigue after years of coalition governance, backlash to the judicial overhaul, and fallout from the October 7 attacks amid ongoing security challenges. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has frequently led or tied Likud in surveys, while broader opposition blocs often approach or exceed 60 seats. Internal Likud primaries and coalition strains have further highlighted fragmentation on the right. These trends underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats, though final results depend on turnout, Arab party performance, and late campaign shifts.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$11,080结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21-25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). This decline stems from voter fatigue after years of coalition governance, backlash to the judicial overhaul, and fallout from the October 7 attacks amid ongoing security challenges. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has frequently led or tied Likud in surveys, while broader opposition blocs often approach or exceed 60 seats. Internal Likud primaries and coalition strains have further highlighted fragmentation on the right. These trends underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats, though final results depend on turnout, Arab party performance, and late campaign shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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