Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at roughly 22–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, Direct Polls, and others show the Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc falling short of a 61-seat majority, with centrist and opposition parties such as Yashar and Together frequently matching or exceeding Likud's totals. The party's August 17 primaries reinforced internal discipline around Netanyahu loyalists but produced no measurable lift in national support. Ongoing voter dissatisfaction tied to security performance, coalition management, and opposition consolidation continues to weigh on projections, sustaining the high implied probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than it holds today.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于92% 概率
$11,920 交易量
$11,920 交易量
2026-10-26
92% 概率
$11,920 交易量
$11,920 交易量
2026-10-26
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at roughly 22–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, Direct Polls, and others show the Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc falling short of a 61-seat majority, with centrist and opposition parties such as Yashar and Together frequently matching or exceeding Likud's totals. The party's August 17 primaries reinforced internal discipline around Netanyahu loyalists but produced no measurable lift in national support. Ongoing voter dissatisfaction tied to security performance, coalition management, and opposition consolidation continues to weigh on projections, sustaining the high implied probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than it holds today.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$11,920结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at roughly 22–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, Direct Polls, and others show the Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc falling short of a 61-seat majority, with centrist and opposition parties such as Yashar and Together frequently matching or exceeding Likud's totals. The party's August 17 primaries reinforced internal discipline around Netanyahu loyalists but produced no measurable lift in national support. Ongoing voter dissatisfaction tied to security performance, coalition management, and opposition consolidation continues to weigh on projections, sustaining the high implied probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than it holds today.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$11,920结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election projects Likud at roughly 22–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or 36 including the New Hope merger). Multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, Direct Polls, and others show the Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc falling short of a 61-seat majority, with centrist and opposition parties such as Yashar and Together frequently matching or exceeding Likud's totals. The party's August 17 primaries reinforced internal discipline around Netanyahu loyalists but produced no measurable lift in national support. Ongoing voter dissatisfaction tied to security performance, coalition management, and opposition consolidation continues to weigh on projections, sustaining the high implied probability that Likud will finish with fewer mandates than it holds today.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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