The Justice Department's April 2026 dismissal of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence—remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at roughly 3-7% implied probability of federal charges by year-end. With subpoenas quashed and no indictment filed, markets price in negligible tail risk despite Powell's shift from chair (term ended May 2026) to governor role. Recent Fed statements and upcoming Jackson Hole remarks on monetary policy offer limited new catalysts, as the absence of active proceedings and judicial findings of no wrongdoing continue to shape skin-in-the-game sentiment around any renewed political scrutiny.