Trader sentiment on a federal indictment of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains heavily skewed toward no charges, reflecting the Department of Justice’s April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Powell’s congressional testimony and the Fed’s headquarters renovation. Subpoenas issued in January 2026 produced no evidence of criminal conduct, and a federal judge quashed related demands, underscoring the absence of prosecutable facts. With the investigation closed and Powell continuing to guide monetary policy amid steady inflation and labor-market data, the market-implied probability of charges by year-end sits near 3 percent. No material catalysts—such as new filings or congressional referrals—have emerged since the probe ended, leaving little scope for reversal absent unforeseen political developments.