Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship on July 16 with open weights by July 27—drives trader expectations for K4. The Beijing lab's K3 achieved frontier-level results on coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks while trailing only top closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, intensifying competition and sustaining momentum toward the next iteration. Recent funding at elevated valuations and an ongoing Hong Kong IPO process further signal resources for continued scaling of mixture-of-experts architectures with larger context windows and agent swarms. No official K4 timeline has emerged, leaving resolution hinges on Moonshot's historical 2–3 month cycles and any credible leaks around developer conferences or earnings updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$17,518 交易量
2026-10-31
2026年10月31日
3%
2026年12月31日
14%
$17,518 交易量
2026年10月31日
$9,489 交易量
3%
2026年12月31日
$8,030 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship on July 16 with open weights by July 27—drives trader expectations for K4. The Beijing lab's K3 achieved frontier-level results on coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks while trailing only top closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, intensifying competition and sustaining momentum toward the next iteration. Recent funding at elevated valuations and an ongoing Hong Kong IPO process further signal resources for continued scaling of mixture-of-experts architectures with larger context windows and agent swarms. No official K4 timeline has emerged, leaving resolution hinges on Moonshot's historical 2–3 month cycles and any credible leaks around developer conferences or earnings updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$17,518结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship on July 16 with open weights by July 27—drives trader expectations for K4. The Beijing lab's K3 achieved frontier-level results on coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks while trailing only top closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, intensifying competition and sustaining momentum toward the next iteration. Recent funding at elevated valuations and an ongoing Hong Kong IPO process further signal resources for continued scaling of mixture-of-experts architectures with larger context windows and agent swarms. No official K4 timeline has emerged, leaving resolution hinges on Moonshot's historical 2–3 month cycles and any credible leaks around developer conferences or earnings updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,518结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETMoonshot AI's rapid release cadence—delivering Kimi K2.6 in April 2026, K2.7 Code in June, and the 2.8-trillion-parameter K3 flagship on July 16 with open weights by July 27—drives trader expectations for K4. The Beijing lab's K3 achieved frontier-level results on coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks while trailing only top closed models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, intensifying competition and sustaining momentum toward the next iteration. Recent funding at elevated valuations and an ongoing Hong Kong IPO process further signal resources for continued scaling of mixture-of-experts architectures with larger context windows and agent swarms. No official K4 timeline has emerged, leaving resolution hinges on Moonshot's historical 2–3 month cycles and any credible leaks around developer conferences or earnings updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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