**Democratic-led impeachment articles against former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, introduced in January 2026, have not advanced.** House Democrats, led by Rep. Robin Kelly, filed three articles citing alleged obstruction of congressional oversight, statements on use of force by ICE/CBP agents, and a contract award issue. The resolution quickly gained around 70 cosponsors, all within the Democratic caucus, and was referred to the House Judiciary Committee. With Republican majorities in the House and Senate during the 119th Congress, the effort lacked the votes needed for floor consideration or a successful impeachment. Republican lawmakers, including South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson, publicly dismissed the push as unlikely to succeed. No committee hearings, markups, or votes have occurred in the seven months since introduction, and Noem transitioned out of the DHS role later in 2026. These factors—partisan sponsorship, procedural stagnation, and institutional control—underpin the market’s 90.5% implied probability that impeachment will not occur in 2026. Late-session developments or unexpected bipartisan momentum remain the only realistic paths that could alter the trajectory before year-end.