**Democratic-led impeachment efforts against Kristi Noem as DHS Secretary began in January 2026 but faced structural barriers that have kept removal odds low.** Rep. Robin Kelly introduced articles citing obstruction of congressional oversight, public trust violations tied to use-of-force incidents, and self-dealing concerns; the resolution drew over 70 cosponsors, mostly Democrats. With Republicans holding the House majority, the measure received no committee advancement or floor consideration. Noem departed the DHS role in March 2026 when President Trump reassigned her to a different position amid separate scrutiny over agency operations and spending. As of mid-June 2026, no active impeachment proceedings exist, and her changed official status removes the immediate target for removal. Trader consensus at 86.9% against impeachment in 2026 aligns with historical patterns in which opposition-party articles rarely advance in a chamber controlled by the president's party, especially once the official has left the position. Upcoming events within the calendar year, such as any renewed legislative push, would need to overcome these same partisan and procedural thresholds to alter the current implied probability.