The Republican Party holds an 84% implied probability in the KS-04 House election due to the district's consistent R+12 partisan lean, which delivered a 23-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024 and consecutive double-digit victories for incumbent Ron Estes. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal in Sedgwick County and surrounding areas. Estes faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democrats field a crowded primary including Katy Tyndell and several veterans, fragmenting resources before the November 3 general election. This structural edge has kept trader consensus stable despite the June filing deadline, with no recent polling or events altering the baseline outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$31,233 交易量
$31,233 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
84%
民主党
14%
$31,233 交易量
$31,233 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$18,560 交易量
84%
民主党
$12,673 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 84% implied probability in the KS-04 House election due to the district's consistent R+12 partisan lean, which delivered a 23-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024 and consecutive double-digit victories for incumbent Ron Estes. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal in Sedgwick County and surrounding areas. Estes faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democrats field a crowded primary including Katy Tyndell and several veterans, fragmenting resources before the November 3 general election. This structural edge has kept trader consensus stable despite the June filing deadline, with no recent polling or events altering the baseline outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$31,233结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 84% implied probability in the KS-04 House election due to the district's consistent R+12 partisan lean, which delivered a 23-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024 and consecutive double-digit victories for incumbent Ron Estes. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal in Sedgwick County and surrounding areas. Estes faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democrats field a crowded primary including Katy Tyndell and several veterans, fragmenting resources before the November 3 general election. This structural edge has kept trader consensus stable despite the June filing deadline, with no recent polling or events altering the baseline outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$31,233结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 84% implied probability in the KS-04 House election due to the district's consistent R+12 partisan lean, which delivered a 23-point margin for Donald Trump in 2024 and consecutive double-digit victories for incumbent Ron Estes. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal in Sedgwick County and surrounding areas. Estes faces no primary opposition ahead of the August 4 vote, while Democrats field a crowded primary including Katy Tyndell and several veterans, fragmenting resources before the November 3 general election. This structural edge has kept trader consensus stable despite the June filing deadline, with no recent polling or events altering the baseline outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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