Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with consistent support in recent election cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure in rural and suburban areas that form its core. Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a May 19 primary challenge from Ed Gallrein, backed by President Trump, yet either nominee enters the November general election with structural advantages including name recognition, fundraising capacity, and alignment with the district's voter base. Trader consensus at 90.5% for the Republican Party reflects these fundamentals, while the 8.5% Democratic share accounts for possible turnout shifts or national conditions. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large swing in voter preference or external events like a major scandal, though historical margins suggest such outcomes remain unlikely without significant changes in the broader political environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,808 交易量
$15,808 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
$15,808 交易量
$15,808 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,492 交易量
91%
民主党
$1,316 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with consistent support in recent election cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure in rural and suburban areas that form its core. Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a May 19 primary challenge from Ed Gallrein, backed by President Trump, yet either nominee enters the November general election with structural advantages including name recognition, fundraising capacity, and alignment with the district's voter base. Trader consensus at 90.5% for the Republican Party reflects these fundamentals, while the 8.5% Democratic share accounts for possible turnout shifts or national conditions. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large swing in voter preference or external events like a major scandal, though historical margins suggest such outcomes remain unlikely without significant changes in the broader political environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$15,808结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with consistent support in recent election cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure in rural and suburban areas that form its core. Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a May 19 primary challenge from Ed Gallrein, backed by President Trump, yet either nominee enters the November general election with structural advantages including name recognition, fundraising capacity, and alignment with the district's voter base. Trader consensus at 90.5% for the Republican Party reflects these fundamentals, while the 8.5% Democratic share accounts for possible turnout shifts or national conditions. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large swing in voter preference or external events like a major scandal, though historical margins suggest such outcomes remain unlikely without significant changes in the broader political environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,808结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with consistent support in recent election cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure in rural and suburban areas that form its core. Incumbent Thomas Massie faces a May 19 primary challenge from Ed Gallrein, backed by President Trump, yet either nominee enters the November general election with structural advantages including name recognition, fundraising capacity, and alignment with the district's voter base. Trader consensus at 90.5% for the Republican Party reflects these fundamentals, while the 8.5% Democratic share accounts for possible turnout shifts or national conditions. A Democratic upset would require an unusually large swing in voter preference or external events like a major scandal, though historical margins suggest such outcomes remain unlikely without significant changes in the broader political environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题