Kentucky’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Ed Gallrein secured the nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie with Trump’s endorsement, after a record-spending contest. The district’s partisan voter index of R+18 and recent presidential results showing Republican margins of 19–35 points underpin forecasters’ Solid Republican ratings. Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces the same structural headwinds that have produced consistent double-digit Republican general-election victories. Late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, major scandals, or an unexpected national swing could narrow the margin, yet historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate limited realistic pathways for a Democratic upset before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,317 交易量
$34,317 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
$34,317 交易量
$34,317 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$24,877 交易量
93%
民主党
$9,440 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Ed Gallrein secured the nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie with Trump’s endorsement, after a record-spending contest. The district’s partisan voter index of R+18 and recent presidential results showing Republican margins of 19–35 points underpin forecasters’ Solid Republican ratings. Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces the same structural headwinds that have produced consistent double-digit Republican general-election victories. Late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, major scandals, or an unexpected national swing could narrow the margin, yet historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate limited realistic pathways for a Democratic upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$34,317结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Ed Gallrein secured the nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie with Trump’s endorsement, after a record-spending contest. The district’s partisan voter index of R+18 and recent presidential results showing Republican margins of 19–35 points underpin forecasters’ Solid Republican ratings. Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces the same structural headwinds that have produced consistent double-digit Republican general-election victories. Late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, major scandals, or an unexpected national swing could narrow the margin, yet historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate limited realistic pathways for a Democratic upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,317结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETKentucky’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in the 92.5% market price for the Republican nominee. Ed Gallrein secured the nomination in the May 19, 2026 primary by defeating longtime incumbent Thomas Massie with Trump’s endorsement, after a record-spending contest. The district’s partisan voter index of R+18 and recent presidential results showing Republican margins of 19–35 points underpin forecasters’ Solid Republican ratings. Democratic nominee Melissa Strange faces the same structural headwinds that have produced consistent double-digit Republican general-election victories. Late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, major scandals, or an unexpected national swing could narrow the margin, yet historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling indicate limited realistic pathways for a Democratic upset before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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