Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election because his Renovación Popular list is positioned to deliver him the post indirectly. After resigning his Senate seat and navigating repeated challenges to his regidor candidacy, the JNE confirmed his eligibility in early September, clearing the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails. Recent polling from IEP, CIT, and CPI in the first half of September placed his support in the 20–33% range, well ahead of Carlos Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and the remaining field of more than twenty candidates. Legal scrutiny of campaign materials and the crowded, fragmented ballot have not altered the underlying advantage, leaving other named contenders at single-digit or lower implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 75.4%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布鲁斯·蒙特斯·德·奥卡 21.2%
里卡多·巴勃罗·贝尔蒙特·卡西内利 3.1%
丹尼尔·贝利萨里奥·乌雷斯蒂·埃莱拉 3.0%
$152,176 交易量
$152,176 交易量
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
75%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布鲁斯·蒙特斯·德·奥卡
21%
里卡多·巴勃罗·贝尔蒙特·卡西内利
3%
丹尼尔·贝利萨里奥·乌雷斯蒂·埃莱拉
3%
弗朗西斯·詹姆斯·阿利森·奥亚格
2%
苏塞尔·安娜·玛丽亚·帕雷德斯·皮克
<1%
鲁本·何塞·拉米雷斯·马特奥
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆纳罗
<1%
圣地亚哥·罗森多·阿巴卡·莱昂
<1%
路易斯·伊萨埃尔·鲁比奥·伊德罗戈
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波马尔·比斯卡拉
<1%
桑德罗·卡勒尔·古铁雷斯
<1%
杰西卡·维维亚娜·利纳雷斯·罗梅罗
<1%
伊丽莎白·玛丽亚·德尔·罗萨里奥·莱昂·钦查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
弗洛尔·德·玛丽亚·乌尔塔多·瓦尔德斯
<1%
奥斯瓦尔多·埃尔南·巴尔加斯·库埃利亚
<1%
鲁本·丹尼尔·博尼利亚·埃斯皮诺萨
<1%
塞缪尔·马科斯·达萨·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
萨米尔·弗兰克·基斯佩·卡瓦列罗
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔韦托·特哈达·诺列加
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 75.4%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布鲁斯·蒙特斯·德·奥卡 21.2%
里卡多·巴勃罗·贝尔蒙特·卡西内利 3.1%
丹尼尔·贝利萨里奥·乌雷斯蒂·埃莱拉 3.0%
$152,176 交易量
$152,176 交易量
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
75%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布鲁斯·蒙特斯·德·奥卡
21%
里卡多·巴勃罗·贝尔蒙特·卡西内利
3%
丹尼尔·贝利萨里奥·乌雷斯蒂·埃莱拉
3%
弗朗西斯·詹姆斯·阿利森·奥亚格
2%
苏塞尔·安娜·玛丽亚·帕雷德斯·皮克
<1%
鲁本·何塞·拉米雷斯·马特奥
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆纳罗
<1%
圣地亚哥·罗森多·阿巴卡·莱昂
<1%
路易斯·伊萨埃尔·鲁比奥·伊德罗戈
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波马尔·比斯卡拉
<1%
桑德罗·卡勒尔·古铁雷斯
<1%
杰西卡·维维亚娜·利纳雷斯·罗梅罗
<1%
伊丽莎白·玛丽亚·德尔·罗萨里奥·莱昂·钦查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
弗洛尔·德·玛丽亚·乌尔塔多·瓦尔德斯
<1%
奥斯瓦尔多·埃尔南·巴尔加斯·库埃利亚
<1%
鲁本·丹尼尔·博尼利亚·埃斯皮诺萨
<1%
塞缪尔·马科斯·达萨·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
萨米尔·弗兰克·基斯佩·卡瓦列罗
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔韦托·特哈达·诺列加
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election because his Renovación Popular list is positioned to deliver him the post indirectly. After resigning his Senate seat and navigating repeated challenges to his regidor candidacy, the JNE confirmed his eligibility in early September, clearing the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails. Recent polling from IEP, CIT, and CPI in the first half of September placed his support in the 20–33% range, well ahead of Carlos Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and the remaining field of more than twenty candidates. Legal scrutiny of campaign materials and the crowded, fragmented ballot have not altered the underlying advantage, leaving other named contenders at single-digit or lower implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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