Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,839 交易量
$13,839 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$13,839 交易量
$13,839 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,045 交易量
93%
共和党
$8,794 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$13,839结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,839结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lori Trahan dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability in the MA-03 House race, reflecting the district's D+11 Cook PVI, her landslide reelection history—including 97.5% in 2024—and $1.7 million cash-on-hand edge as of late March. Recent candidate filings by May 5 show minimal threats: primary challenger Gaige Clark (D) and Republican Gary Grossi lack resources, while ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections label it Solid/Safe Democratic despite a rightward presidential shift to Harris 58%-Trump 39% in 2024. September 1 primaries loom, but upset scenarios like a Trahan scandal, strong GOP recruit, health issue, or Republican midterm wave remain low-probability catalysts for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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