Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前洛杉矶发生6.5级以上地震？
2027年之前洛杉矶发生6.5级以上地震？
3% 概率
$20,096 交易量
$20,096 交易量
2027-01-07
3% 概率
$20,096 交易量
$20,096 交易量
2027-01-07
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$20,096结束日期
2027-01-08市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$20,096结束日期
2027-01-08市场开放时间
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97% due to the brief remaining window of roughly three months to December 31, 2026, against the low baseline rate of M6.5+ events in the Los Angeles region. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data and regional models indicate annual probabilities near 0.2% for such quakes in central Los Angeles, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on faults like the San Andreas and local thrust systems. Current USGS monitoring shows only background seismicity with events mostly below M3, and no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies that would elevate near-term risk. A sudden cluster of moderate foreshocks or unexpected rupture on an active segment remains a low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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