Recent preliminary results from Nayarit’s state legislative election show the PRI-PVEM-Nueva Alianza alliance leading in 14 of 18 majority districts and 16 municipalities, positioning it to secure a plurality of seats in the 30-member congress. Morena’s coalition with PT and PVEM trails in most reported counts, consistent with its lower implied probability, while PAN, MC, and PRI maintain separate strengths in specific districts. Internal Morena negotiations over candidate selection and coalition seat-sharing have fragmented opposition coordination, sustaining a fragmented field. Final vote tabulation, proportional representation allocations, and any recounts will determine whether any single party or alliance reaches a working majority.