The Oklahoma City Thunder hold the edge as defending NBA champions with an undefeated 8-0 playoff record and home-court advantage in the Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. Their depth, experience, and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's consistent production have solidified trader consensus around the Thunder's implied probability. The Spurs counter with a strong regular-season head-to-head record, a rising young core led by Victor Wembanyama, and momentum from advancing through earlier rounds. This matchup remains competitive given the Spurs' potential to exploit matchups, though recent form and roster continuity favor the top seed entering Game 1.