Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,935 交易量
$25,935 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
4%
$25,935 交易量
$25,935 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$16,676 交易量
97%
共和党
$9,258 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,935结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,935结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 97 percent. Luján secured his party's nomination in the June primary and maintains strong support in recent polling, including a 53-38 percent lead among likely voters in an August Albuquerque Journal survey. New Mexico's partisan lean, demonstrated by Democratic presidential performance in 2024, combined with Luján's incumbency, name recognition from prior House service, and advantages among independents, underpin the market's assessment. His Republican opponent, Larry Marker, advanced via write-in after limited primary competition and trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic. Late developments such as major national shifts, candidate-specific events, or turnout anomalies could still alter the outcome before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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