Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,009 交易量
$15,009 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$15,009 交易量
$15,009 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,093 交易量
96%
共和党
$6,916 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$15,009结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$15,009结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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