The closely contested 2026 New Zealand general election, scheduled for 7 November, anchors trader consensus on turnout in the 76–82% range. Recent polling shows the National-led coalition holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition without a decisive majority path, sustaining high engagement similar to the 82% participation recorded in 2023. Advance voting opens 26 October after enrolment closes 25 October, providing a clear window for mobilisation. Offsetting factors include youth enrolment falling to a 15-year low of 53% and a dormant roll 25% smaller than in the prior cycle, which introduces modest downside pressure. These enrolment trends and the competitive dynamics together explain the narrow clustering of probabilities across the leading bands.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于78-80% 37%
76-78% 28%
80-82% 22.6%
84%+ 4.1%
$19,821 交易量
$19,821 交易量
<76%
4%
76-78%
28%
78-80%
37%
80-82%
23%
82-84%
1%
84%+
4%
78-80% 37%
76-78% 28%
80-82% 22.6%
84%+ 4.1%
$19,821 交易量
$19,821 交易量
<76%
4%
76-78%
28%
78-80%
37%
80-82%
23%
82-84%
1%
84%+
4%
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested 2026 New Zealand general election, scheduled for 7 November, anchors trader consensus on turnout in the 76–82% range. Recent polling shows the National-led coalition holding a narrow lead over the Labour-led opposition without a decisive majority path, sustaining high engagement similar to the 82% participation recorded in 2023. Advance voting opens 26 October after enrolment closes 25 October, providing a clear window for mobilisation. Offsetting factors include youth enrolment falling to a 15-year low of 53% and a dormant roll 25% smaller than in the prior cycle, which introduces modest downside pressure. These enrolment trends and the competitive dynamics together explain the narrow clustering of probabilities across the leading bands.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于相关
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警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题