Recent state election defeats for Friedrich Merz’s CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin have intensified internal party pressure for a potential Kanzlertausch before the next federal vote, keeping probabilities for a successor before 2028 nearly even with no change. Poor CDU results, strong AfD and Left Party showings, and Merz’s approval ratings near historic lows have elevated names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as leading alternatives, though neither has mounted a public challenge and state premiers recently signaled support for stability. Boris Pistorius and others trail amid coalition dynamics and the high bar for replacing an incumbent chancellor mid-term. Upcoming CDU leadership meetings, further regional votes, and economic reform outcomes could shift trader consensus by clarifying whether Merz retains control or yields to a new Union figure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2028年前无下一任总理 48%
亨德里克·武斯特 25%
马库斯·索德 21%
鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯 9%
$28,913 交易量
$28,913 交易量
2028年前无下一任总理
48%
亨德里克·武斯特
25%
马库斯·索德
21%
鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯
9%
爱丽丝·魏德尔
3%
Heidi Reichinnek
2%
菲利克斯·巴纳萨克
2%
萨哈拉·瓦根克内希特
2%
廷诺·克鲁帕拉
1%
卡塔琳娜·德勒格
1%
卡斯滕·林内曼
1%
延斯·施潘
1%
拉尔斯·克林贝尔
1%
2028年前无下一任总理 48%
亨德里克·武斯特 25%
马库斯·索德 21%
鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯 9%
$28,913 交易量
$28,913 交易量
2028年前无下一任总理
48%
亨德里克·武斯特
25%
马库斯·索德
21%
鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯
9%
爱丽丝·魏德尔
3%
Heidi Reichinnek
2%
菲利克斯·巴纳萨克
2%
萨哈拉·瓦根克内希特
2%
廷诺·克鲁帕拉
1%
卡塔琳娜·德勒格
1%
卡斯滕·林内曼
1%
延斯·施潘
1%
拉尔斯·克林贝尔
1%
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent state election defeats for Friedrich Merz’s CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin have intensified internal party pressure for a potential Kanzlertausch before the next federal vote, keeping probabilities for a successor before 2028 nearly even with no change. Poor CDU results, strong AfD and Left Party showings, and Merz’s approval ratings near historic lows have elevated names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder as leading alternatives, though neither has mounted a public challenge and state premiers recently signaled support for stability. Boris Pistorius and others trail amid coalition dynamics and the high bar for replacing an incumbent chancellor mid-term. Upcoming CDU leadership meetings, further regional votes, and economic reform outcomes could shift trader consensus by clarifying whether Merz retains control or yields to a new Union figure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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