The ongoing deadlock among Peace Implementation Council Steering Board members has kept the permanent High Representative position vacant since Christian Schmidt’s July 2026 resignation, with Louis J. Crishock serving as acting officeholder. U.S. support for Italian diplomat Antonio Zanardi Landi clashes with European backing for French candidate René Troccaz, amid broader disagreements over the Office of the High Representative’s future role under the Dayton framework and related policy priorities. This transatlantic impasse, which missed the July target date for a successor, has driven trader consensus toward “No HR in 2026” while assigning lower implied probabilities to named diplomats such as Zanardi Landi, Troccaz, Maurizio Massari, and Peter Sørensen. Scheduled PIC consultations remain the key near-term catalyst that could shift these assessments before year-end.