The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent lead in August 2026 voting intention surveys at roughly 30 percent, ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with particular strength among francophone voters. This positioning underpins trader consensus favoring Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 71 percent for the October 5, 2026, general election. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and premier in April 2026 following François Legault’s resignation, has seen her party’s support stabilize near 20 percent and personal satisfaction ratings decline to 38 percent. Charles Milliard, acclaimed as Liberal leader in February 2026, leads his party at about 26 percent but trails in preferred premier measures. The remaining candidates register minimal support consistent with their parties’ lower polling. The race remains competitive within the three-week window before the writ is expected, with francophone voter priorities and late campaign dynamics capable of shifting final seat outcomes.