Jess Wilson leads Polymarket odds for Victoria’s next premier at 64.5 percent, ahead of incumbent Ben Carroll at 20.5 percent and lower probabilities for figures including Jacinta Allan, Warren Pickering, and various Labor or minor-party contenders. Recent polls show the Liberal-National Coalition ahead on two-party preferred by margins of 51-55 percent to 45-49 percent, with Wilson consistently preferred over Carroll as premier. Wilson assumed Liberal leadership in November 2025 after a party-room spill and has focused on cost-of-living, crime, housing, and budget repair ahead of the November 28, 2026 election. Carroll replaced Allan as Labor leader and premier in late July 2026 following internal pressure, yet primary-vote support for Labor has remained in the mid-20s and no polling rebound has occurred. These trends reflect trader assessments of opposition momentum and the structural challenges facing a long-serving government.