**Nicușor Dan assumed Romania’s presidency in May 2025 following a runoff victory and serves a fixed five-year term renewable once.** Traders assign a 96% implied probability that he will not leave office before the end of 2026, reflecting the high constitutional threshold for removal. Impeachment requires a parliamentary majority to suspend the president followed by a national referendum, a process that has never succeeded against a sitting Romanian head of state since 1989 and lacks the necessary cross-party coalition at present. Ongoing political deadlock since the May 2026 no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan has produced repeated failed prime-ministerial nominations and warnings of fiscal strain, yet these developments have not translated into viable impeachment momentum. Far-right opposition parties have floated suspension initiatives, but they fall short of the votes needed, and Dan has continued exercising his constitutional role by consulting parties and nominating candidates while resisting snap parliamentary elections that polls suggest could strengthen anti-incumbent forces. Realistic paths that could still shift the outcome within the narrow remaining window include a sudden broadening of parliamentary support for suspension amid prolonged gridlock, an unforeseen health or personal development prompting resignation, or an external shock such as a major scandal or court ruling that alters coalition arithmetic. Absent such catalysts, the structural barriers and absence of an active removal mechanism underpin the strong market consensus that Dan will remain in office through December 2026.