The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,025 交易量
$24,025 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
82%
民主党
18%
$24,025 交易量
$24,025 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,087 交易量
82%
民主党
$9,950 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$24,025结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$24,025结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-21 district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 71% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the November 2026 general election. Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election after briefly pursuing the governorship created an open seat, prompting a competitive Republican primary between Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen ahead of the June 23 vote. Democratic primary contenders Stuart Amoriell and Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and similar outlets. Recent fundraising reports and primary polling show no developments sufficient to shift the implied probability away from continued GOP control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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