Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec at 19–24% popular support ahead of the October 5 vote, with strength concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces inefficient seat conversion outside the region, keeping most models at a median of 31–32 seats for the PLQ despite its second-place standing in the overall vote. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project ranges centered on 26–38 seats, aligning with trader emphasis on the 28–31 bracket. Tight three-way contests in many ridings, high undecided levels, and limited francophone support continue to cap upside potential while exposing the party to downside risk if turnout patterns favor competitors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于28-31 36%
少于28 26%
32-35 25%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 交易量
$25,053 交易量
2026-10-05
少于28
26%
28-31
36%
32-35
25%
36-39
6%
40-43
2%
44+
1%
28-31 36%
少于28 26%
32-35 25%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 交易量
$25,053 交易量
2026-10-05
少于28
$4,646 交易量
26%
28-31
$5,039 交易量
36%
32-35
$7,007 交易量
25%
36-39
$5,508 交易量
6%
40-43
$1,501 交易量
2%
44+
$1,351 交易量
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec at 19–24% popular support ahead of the October 5 vote, with strength concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces inefficient seat conversion outside the region, keeping most models at a median of 31–32 seats for the PLQ despite its second-place standing in the overall vote. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project ranges centered on 26–38 seats, aligning with trader emphasis on the 28–31 bracket. Tight three-way contests in many ridings, high undecided levels, and limited francophone support continue to cap upside potential while exposing the party to downside risk if turnout patterns favor competitors.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
交易量
$25,053结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec at 19–24% popular support ahead of the October 5 vote, with strength concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces inefficient seat conversion outside the region, keeping most models at a median of 31–32 seats for the PLQ despite its second-place standing in the overall vote. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project ranges centered on 26–38 seats, aligning with trader emphasis on the 28–31 bracket. Tight three-way contests in many ridings, high undecided levels, and limited francophone support continue to cap upside potential while exposing the party to downside risk if turnout patterns favor competitors.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$25,053结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETRecent polling aggregates place the Parti Libéral du Québec at 19–24% popular support ahead of the October 5 vote, with strength concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces inefficient seat conversion outside the region, keeping most models at a median of 31–32 seats for the PLQ despite its second-place standing in the overall vote. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project ranges centered on 26–38 seats, aligning with trader emphasis on the 28–31 bracket. Tight three-way contests in many ridings, high undecided levels, and limited francophone support continue to cap upside potential while exposing the party to downside risk if turnout patterns favor competitors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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