**Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois leading Quebec voting intentions at 28–29 percent ahead of the October 5 election, yet seat projections cluster around 49–58 seats across models, well short of the 64-seat majority threshold.** This distribution aligns with market pricing that places the highest probabilities on fewer than 55 seats. The fragmented field—incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals tied near 22 percent, with the Conservatives rising to 16–18 percent—splits the non-PQ vote and creates dozens of tight ridings where small shifts determine outcomes. Post-debate surveys have shown limited movement, while regional patterns such as PQ gains in Montreal suburbs and Conservative strength in the Quebec City area contribute to simulation ranges that rarely exceed the low sixties. With two weeks remaining and a sizable undecided pool, late swings in francophone turnout or third-party performance could widen or narrow the PQ seat total within the current tight band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于50 33%
50-54 29%
55-59 20%
60-64 19%
$17,382 交易量
$17,382 交易量
2026-10-05
少于50
33%
50-54
29%
55-59
20%
60-64
17%
65-69
8%
70-74
5%
75-79
5%
80+
4%
少于50 33%
50-54 29%
55-59 20%
60-64 19%
$17,382 交易量
$17,382 交易量
2026-10-05
少于50
$5,307 交易量
33%
50-54
$1,705 交易量
29%
55-59
$979 交易量
20%
60-64
$1,065 交易量
17%
65-69
$3,282 交易量
8%
70-74
$2,651 交易量
5%
75-79
$1,290 交易量
5%
80+
$1,104 交易量
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois leading Quebec voting intentions at 28–29 percent ahead of the October 5 election, yet seat projections cluster around 49–58 seats across models, well short of the 64-seat majority threshold.** This distribution aligns with market pricing that places the highest probabilities on fewer than 55 seats. The fragmented field—incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals tied near 22 percent, with the Conservatives rising to 16–18 percent—splits the non-PQ vote and creates dozens of tight ridings where small shifts determine outcomes. Post-debate surveys have shown limited movement, while regional patterns such as PQ gains in Montreal suburbs and Conservative strength in the Quebec City area contribute to simulation ranges that rarely exceed the low sixties. With two weeks remaining and a sizable undecided pool, late swings in francophone turnout or third-party performance could widen or narrow the PQ seat total within the current tight band.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
交易量
$17,382结束日期
2027-02-01市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois leading Quebec voting intentions at 28–29 percent ahead of the October 5 election, yet seat projections cluster around 49–58 seats across models, well short of the 64-seat majority threshold.** This distribution aligns with market pricing that places the highest probabilities on fewer than 55 seats. The fragmented field—incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals tied near 22 percent, with the Conservatives rising to 16–18 percent—splits the non-PQ vote and creates dozens of tight ridings where small shifts determine outcomes. Post-debate surveys have shown limited movement, while regional patterns such as PQ gains in Montreal suburbs and Conservative strength in the Quebec City area contribute to simulation ranges that rarely exceed the low sixties. With two weeks remaining and a sizable undecided pool, late swings in francophone turnout or third-party performance could widen or narrow the PQ seat total within the current tight band.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$17,382结束日期
2027-02-01市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET**Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois leading Quebec voting intentions at 28–29 percent ahead of the October 5 election, yet seat projections cluster around 49–58 seats across models, well short of the 64-seat majority threshold.** This distribution aligns with market pricing that places the highest probabilities on fewer than 55 seats. The fragmented field—incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals tied near 22 percent, with the Conservatives rising to 16–18 percent—splits the non-PQ vote and creates dozens of tight ridings where small shifts determine outcomes. Post-debate surveys have shown limited movement, while regional patterns such as PQ gains in Montreal suburbs and Conservative strength in the Quebec City area contribute to simulation ranges that rarely exceed the low sixties. With two weeks remaining and a sizable undecided pool, late swings in francophone turnout or third-party performance could widen or narrow the PQ seat total within the current tight band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题