Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds the advantage in Ohio's 15th congressional district, an R+5 seat in the suburban Columbus area, where structural partisan lean and his 2024 general election performance underpin trader consensus at 78% for the Republican nominee. The May 2026 primaries, with Carey effectively unopposed and Democrat Don Leonard prevailing in a close contest, cleared the field and focused attention on the November general election. Cook Political Report maintained a Solid R rating as of mid-August 2026, reflecting limited shifts in voter patterns despite some July and August polls showing Leonard narrowing the gap to single digits in head-to-head matchups. With months remaining until Election Day and no major national or local catalysts altering turnout dynamics, the implied probabilities align with the district's historical Republican tilt and the absence of decisive momentum for the challenger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,501 交易量
$10,501 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
民主党
19%
$10,501 交易量
$10,501 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$4,609 交易量
78%
民主党
$5,891 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds the advantage in Ohio's 15th congressional district, an R+5 seat in the suburban Columbus area, where structural partisan lean and his 2024 general election performance underpin trader consensus at 78% for the Republican nominee. The May 2026 primaries, with Carey effectively unopposed and Democrat Don Leonard prevailing in a close contest, cleared the field and focused attention on the November general election. Cook Political Report maintained a Solid R rating as of mid-August 2026, reflecting limited shifts in voter patterns despite some July and August polls showing Leonard narrowing the gap to single digits in head-to-head matchups. With months remaining until Election Day and no major national or local catalysts altering turnout dynamics, the implied probabilities align with the district's historical Republican tilt and the absence of decisive momentum for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$10,501结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds the advantage in Ohio's 15th congressional district, an R+5 seat in the suburban Columbus area, where structural partisan lean and his 2024 general election performance underpin trader consensus at 78% for the Republican nominee. The May 2026 primaries, with Carey effectively unopposed and Democrat Don Leonard prevailing in a close contest, cleared the field and focused attention on the November general election. Cook Political Report maintained a Solid R rating as of mid-August 2026, reflecting limited shifts in voter patterns despite some July and August polls showing Leonard narrowing the gap to single digits in head-to-head matchups. With months remaining until Election Day and no major national or local catalysts altering turnout dynamics, the implied probabilities align with the district's historical Republican tilt and the absence of decisive momentum for the challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,501结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds the advantage in Ohio's 15th congressional district, an R+5 seat in the suburban Columbus area, where structural partisan lean and his 2024 general election performance underpin trader consensus at 78% for the Republican nominee. The May 2026 primaries, with Carey effectively unopposed and Democrat Don Leonard prevailing in a close contest, cleared the field and focused attention on the November general election. Cook Political Report maintained a Solid R rating as of mid-August 2026, reflecting limited shifts in voter patterns despite some July and August polls showing Leonard narrowing the gap to single digits in head-to-head matchups. With months remaining until Election Day and no major national or local catalysts altering turnout dynamics, the implied probabilities align with the district's historical Republican tilt and the absence of decisive momentum for the challenger.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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