Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent 60-point general election margins for incumbent Tom Cole. Cole's early re-election filing, combined with a strong cash-on-hand position exceeding $2.5 million and the absence of credible primary challengers ahead of the June 16 vote, has anchored trader consensus near 93 percent for a Republican victory. Democratic primary contenders, including Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley, face structural barriers in this rural, conservative district with no recent polling shifts or national midterm dynamics yet altering the outlook. Late-breaking developments such as a successful primary upset, candidate health issues, or an unforeseen scandal remain the primary pathways that could realistically narrow the gap before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,903 交易量
$20,903 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
$20,903 交易量
$20,903 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$12,877 交易量
93%
民主党
$8,026 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent 60-point general election margins for incumbent Tom Cole. Cole's early re-election filing, combined with a strong cash-on-hand position exceeding $2.5 million and the absence of credible primary challengers ahead of the June 16 vote, has anchored trader consensus near 93 percent for a Republican victory. Democratic primary contenders, including Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley, face structural barriers in this rural, conservative district with no recent polling shifts or national midterm dynamics yet altering the outlook. Late-breaking developments such as a successful primary upset, candidate health issues, or an unforeseen scandal remain the primary pathways that could realistically narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$20,903结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent 60-point general election margins for incumbent Tom Cole. Cole's early re-election filing, combined with a strong cash-on-hand position exceeding $2.5 million and the absence of credible primary challengers ahead of the June 16 vote, has anchored trader consensus near 93 percent for a Republican victory. Democratic primary contenders, including Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley, face structural barriers in this rural, conservative district with no recent polling shifts or national midterm dynamics yet altering the outlook. Late-breaking developments such as a successful primary upset, candidate health issues, or an unforeseen scandal remain the primary pathways that could realistically narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,903结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican advantage rooted in its R+17 partisan voting index and consistent 60-point general election margins for incumbent Tom Cole. Cole's early re-election filing, combined with a strong cash-on-hand position exceeding $2.5 million and the absence of credible primary challengers ahead of the June 16 vote, has anchored trader consensus near 93 percent for a Republican victory. Democratic primary contenders, including Mitchell Jacob and Jeff Pixley, face structural barriers in this rural, conservative district with no recent polling shifts or national midterm dynamics yet altering the outlook. Late-breaking developments such as a successful primary upset, candidate health issues, or an unforeseen scandal remain the primary pathways that could realistically narrow the gap before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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