Recent Wall Street Journal and Information reports revealing OpenAI's missed revenue targets, slowing user growth, and CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism toward a 2026 IPO—citing $600 billion in compute commitments and organizational hurdles—have driven the 75.5% market-implied probability on "No" for a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Following a record $122 billion funding round in March that pegged private valuation at $852 billion, traders remain wary of public market discounts amid projections for $85 billion losses in 2028 from soaring AI training and inference costs, despite revenue doubling. Absent an S-1 filing, upcoming catalysts like Q4 financial previews or model release benchmarks could sway consensus, though historical IPO delays for high-burn AI labs reinforce caution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$269,122 交易量
$269,122 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$269,122 交易量
$269,122 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent Wall Street Journal and Information reports revealing OpenAI's missed revenue targets, slowing user growth, and CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism toward a 2026 IPO—citing $600 billion in compute commitments and organizational hurdles—have driven the 75.5% market-implied probability on "No" for a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Following a record $122 billion funding round in March that pegged private valuation at $852 billion, traders remain wary of public market discounts amid projections for $85 billion losses in 2028 from soaring AI training and inference costs, despite revenue doubling. Absent an S-1 filing, upcoming catalysts like Q4 financial previews or model release benchmarks could sway consensus, though historical IPO delays for high-burn AI labs reinforce caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
交易量
$269,122结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent Wall Street Journal and Information reports revealing OpenAI's missed revenue targets, slowing user growth, and CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism toward a 2026 IPO—citing $600 billion in compute commitments and organizational hurdles—have driven the 75.5% market-implied probability on "No" for a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Following a record $122 billion funding round in March that pegged private valuation at $852 billion, traders remain wary of public market discounts amid projections for $85 billion losses in 2028 from soaring AI training and inference costs, despite revenue doubling. Absent an S-1 filing, upcoming catalysts like Q4 financial previews or model release benchmarks could sway consensus, though historical IPO delays for high-burn AI labs reinforce caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
交易量
$269,122结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Wall Street Journal and Information reports revealing OpenAI's missed revenue targets, slowing user growth, and CFO Sarah Friar's skepticism toward a 2026 IPO—citing $600 billion in compute commitments and organizational hurdles—have driven the 75.5% market-implied probability on "No" for a $1 trillion-plus listing before 2027. Following a record $122 billion funding round in March that pegged private valuation at $852 billion, traders remain wary of public market discounts amid projections for $85 billion losses in 2028 from soaring AI training and inference costs, despite revenue doubling. Absent an S-1 filing, upcoming catalysts like Q4 financial previews or model release benchmarks could sway consensus, though historical IPO delays for high-burn AI labs reinforce caution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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