Meta's current market capitalization of approximately $1.85 trillion substantially exceeds OpenAI's latest closed private valuation of $852 billion from its March 2026 round, establishing the core driver behind the 93% market-implied probability favoring Meta on December 31. With only three months remaining, OpenAI's ongoing talks for a $30 billion raise at roughly $1.4 trillion pre-money valuation appear unlikely to close the gap before year-end, even amid its revenue run rate approaching $70 billion. Trader consensus reflects this structural disparity in scale and liquidity, reinforced by Meta's consistent earnings trajectory and public share price stability. A completed OpenAI round or sharp Meta stock decline could narrow the differential, though both scenarios face near-term execution hurdles.