Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek enters the May 19 primary unopposed by serious challengers, bolstering her path to renomination amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration edge (roughly 37% Democrat vs. 27% Republican) and historical trends—no Republican has won the governorship since 1986. Trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural advantages, even as recent polls highlight Kotek's vulnerabilities: a late-April DHM survey showed her approval cratering to 33% in the Portland metro area, and a May 11-12 Hoffman poll funded by Republican Chris Dudley had him edging her 48%-44% hypothetically. The GOP primary remains fragmented, with Christine Drazan leading averages at 36% over Ed Diehl (18%) and Dudley (16%), per late-April surveys, potentially yielding a nominee unable to overcome statewide Democratic leans despite low Kotek approval. Primary outcomes could prompt modest odds shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,142 交易量
$14,142 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
89%
共和党
12%
$14,142 交易量
$14,142 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$7,557 交易量
89%
共和党
$6,585 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek enters the May 19 primary unopposed by serious challengers, bolstering her path to renomination amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration edge (roughly 37% Democrat vs. 27% Republican) and historical trends—no Republican has won the governorship since 1986. Trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural advantages, even as recent polls highlight Kotek's vulnerabilities: a late-April DHM survey showed her approval cratering to 33% in the Portland metro area, and a May 11-12 Hoffman poll funded by Republican Chris Dudley had him edging her 48%-44% hypothetically. The GOP primary remains fragmented, with Christine Drazan leading averages at 36% over Ed Diehl (18%) and Dudley (16%), per late-April surveys, potentially yielding a nominee unable to overcome statewide Democratic leans despite low Kotek approval. Primary outcomes could prompt modest odds shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$14,142结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek enters the May 19 primary unopposed by serious challengers, bolstering her path to renomination amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration edge (roughly 37% Democrat vs. 27% Republican) and historical trends—no Republican has won the governorship since 1986. Trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural advantages, even as recent polls highlight Kotek's vulnerabilities: a late-April DHM survey showed her approval cratering to 33% in the Portland metro area, and a May 11-12 Hoffman poll funded by Republican Chris Dudley had him edging her 48%-44% hypothetically. The GOP primary remains fragmented, with Christine Drazan leading averages at 36% over Ed Diehl (18%) and Dudley (16%), per late-April surveys, potentially yielding a nominee unable to overcome statewide Democratic leans despite low Kotek approval. Primary outcomes could prompt modest odds shifts.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$14,142结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek enters the May 19 primary unopposed by serious challengers, bolstering her path to renomination amid Oregon's Democratic voter registration edge (roughly 37% Democrat vs. 27% Republican) and historical trends—no Republican has won the governorship since 1986. Trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural advantages, even as recent polls highlight Kotek's vulnerabilities: a late-April DHM survey showed her approval cratering to 33% in the Portland metro area, and a May 11-12 Hoffman poll funded by Republican Chris Dudley had him edging her 48%-44% hypothetically. The GOP primary remains fragmented, with Christine Drazan leading averages at 36% over Ed Diehl (18%) and Dudley (16%), per late-April surveys, potentially yielding a nominee unable to overcome statewide Democratic leans despite low Kotek approval. Primary outcomes could prompt modest odds shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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