Mark Sutcliffe holds a clear lead in the 2026 Ottawa mayoral race as the incumbent seeking a second term, with traders assigning him a 71.5% implied probability due to his established name recognition and structural advantages in a municipal contest decided by plurality vote on October 26. Jeff Leiper, the Kitchissippi councillor who filed nomination papers on the first day of the period on May 1 along with Alex Lawson and Neil Saravanamuttoo, trails at 20.5% amid a fragmented field. Recent polling shows Sutcliffe ahead among decided voters but with negative approval on issues such as transit and homelessness, leaving substantial undecided support that could shift with full campaign platforms and consolidation among challengers. The current pricing reflects trader assessment of these early dynamics rather than final outcomes.