Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于咖啡种植季节米纳斯吉拉斯州的严重干旱高峰？
咖啡种植季节米纳斯吉拉斯州的严重干旱高峰？
20%到39.99% 33%
40%到59.99% 21%
5%到19.99% 17%
60%或以上 16%
最新
最新
2027-04-30
低于5%
6%
5%到19.99%
23%
20%到39.99%
33%
40%到59.99%
21%
60%或以上
16%
20%到39.99% 33%
40%到59.99% 21%
5%到19.99% 17%
60%或以上 16%
最新
最新
2027-04-30
低于5%
$342 交易量
6%
5%到19.99%
$1,375 交易量
23%
20%到39.99%
$3,170 交易量
33%
40%到59.99%
$2,202 交易量
21%
60%或以上
$472 交易量
16%
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
交易量
$7,561结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETThis market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.Recent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above.
For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA.
This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure among the reference months for which ANA has published data as of that time, using each month's figure as published by ANA as of that time, inclusive of any revisions ANA has published by then. If ANA has published data for none of the six reference months as of 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027, this market will resolve to "Under 5%".
The resolution source for this market will be data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA), found at https://monitordesecas.ana.gov.br/dados-tabulares?tipo=1&area=31.
交易量
$7,561结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:33 PM ETRecent low-humidity alerts from INMET across much of Minas Gerais, combined with confirmed El Niño development, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds clustered around moderate drought ranges for the coffee season. Flowering begins with September-October rains; any delay or irregularity from the current dry spell risks soil-moisture deficits during reproductive stages, while January-March fruit fill remains vulnerable to prolonged water stress. Recent above-average winter rainfall improved reservoir levels and vegetative recovery after 2025-26 drought episodes, yet model divergence on El Niño intensity and steering patterns creates uncertainty whether peak severe drought (measured by official indices) stays below 20 percent or reaches 40-60 percent of the state. Updated INMET and seasonal forecasts through October will clarify resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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