Putin maintains tight control over Russia’s security services, military command, and elite networks, with expanded FSB authority and layered protections against internal challenges limiting the scope for coordinated action by factions. European intelligence reports from early 2026 noted heightened Kremlin security measures, including surveillance of aides and reduced public appearances, amid concerns over potential plots or drone threats linked to figures like Sergei Shoigu, yet no verified coup attempt has materialized. Analysts point to the absence of organized opposition or military defections capable of execution, alongside the regime’s response to Ukraine-related strains through repression and spending priorities. Trader consensus assigns low probability to an attempt by late 2026, consistent with historical patterns of elite consolidation under the current system. Scheduled parliamentary or leadership reviews could test internal balances but face significant procedural and loyalty barriers.