Russia's strategic nuclear forces have conducted multiple large-scale exercises in recent weeks, including ICBM launches from land and submarine platforms plus long-range bomber drills simulating authorization procedures, yet these remain non-explosive tests of delivery systems. Kremlin statements have repeatedly denied any secret nuclear detonations while warning of reciprocal measures if the United States resumes explosive testing. Ongoing military activity near the Arctic and Pacific, combined with the expiration of New START, sustains trader focus on signaling rather than actual weapon detonations. The absence of verifiable explosive tests in the past month keeps implied probabilities low, with scheduled drills unlikely to shift consensus absent a major escalation or policy reversal.