Recent diplomatic signals have kept hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement alive but limited. In mid-August 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described a joint plan with allies to pressure Moscow into halting hostilities, while Russian officials signaled readiness to discuss new U.S. proposals yet reiterated demands on territory and security guarantees. Earlier short pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day halt and prisoner exchanges in May, produced no lasting de-escalation amid ongoing strikes and ground operations. Core disputes over borders, Ukrainian neutrality, and sanctions remain unresolved, with no comprehensive negotiations scheduled before year-end. Traders price a full agreement by December 31, 2026, as low probability given the entrenched positions and absence of major concessions from either side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,894,650 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
11%
8月31日
2%
12月31日
26%
$5,894,650 交易量
10月31日
$846,168 交易量
11%
8月31日
$373,976 交易量
2%
12月31日
$2,137,174 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic signals have kept hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement alive but limited. In mid-August 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described a joint plan with allies to pressure Moscow into halting hostilities, while Russian officials signaled readiness to discuss new U.S. proposals yet reiterated demands on territory and security guarantees. Earlier short pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day halt and prisoner exchanges in May, produced no lasting de-escalation amid ongoing strikes and ground operations. Core disputes over borders, Ukrainian neutrality, and sanctions remain unresolved, with no comprehensive negotiations scheduled before year-end. Traders price a full agreement by December 31, 2026, as low probability given the entrenched positions and absence of major concessions from either side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$5,894,650结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic signals have kept hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement alive but limited. In mid-August 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described a joint plan with allies to pressure Moscow into halting hostilities, while Russian officials signaled readiness to discuss new U.S. proposals yet reiterated demands on territory and security guarantees. Earlier short pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day halt and prisoner exchanges in May, produced no lasting de-escalation amid ongoing strikes and ground operations. Core disputes over borders, Ukrainian neutrality, and sanctions remain unresolved, with no comprehensive negotiations scheduled before year-end. Traders price a full agreement by December 31, 2026, as low probability given the entrenched positions and absence of major concessions from either side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,894,650结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic signals have kept hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement alive but limited. In mid-August 2026, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described a joint plan with allies to pressure Moscow into halting hostilities, while Russian officials signaled readiness to discuss new U.S. proposals yet reiterated demands on territory and security guarantees. Earlier short pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day halt and prisoner exchanges in May, produced no lasting de-escalation amid ongoing strikes and ground operations. Core disputes over borders, Ukrainian neutrality, and sanctions remain unresolved, with no comprehensive negotiations scheduled before year-end. Traders price a full agreement by December 31, 2026, as low probability given the entrenched positions and absence of major concessions from either side.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题