Incumbent Janet Gatehouse holds the leading trader consensus at 56.5% for the October 27, 2026 Sorell mayoral election, supported by her position as current mayor following the 2024 by-election. The fragmented field ahead of the September 7–21 nomination window leaves most other contenders priced near even money, with Kristian Horvath at 23% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 6.5%. Tasmania’s preferential voting system and lack of published polls or major campaign activity keep probabilities tightly bunched, as local issues around planning, infrastructure, and rates have yet to produce clear differentiation. Late nominations, candidate statements, or preference flows could shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于珍妮特·盖特豪斯 56%
Kristian Horvath 23%
马里索尔·米罗·奎萨达·勒鲁 7%
最新
最新
2026-10-27
珍妮特·盖特豪斯
56%
Kristian Horvath
23%
马里索尔·米罗·奎萨达·勒鲁
7%
珍妮特·盖特豪斯 56%
Kristian Horvath 23%
马里索尔·米罗·奎萨达·勒鲁 7%
最新
最新
2026-10-27
珍妮特·盖特豪斯
$1,891 交易量
56%
Kristian Horvath
$866 交易量
23%
马里索尔·米罗·奎萨达·勒鲁
$286 交易量
7%
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Incumbent Janet Gatehouse holds the leading trader consensus at 56.5% for the October 27, 2026 Sorell mayoral election, supported by her position as current mayor following the 2024 by-election. The fragmented field ahead of the September 7–21 nomination window leaves most other contenders priced near even money, with Kristian Horvath at 23% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 6.5%. Tasmania’s preferential voting system and lack of published polls or major campaign activity keep probabilities tightly bunched, as local issues around planning, infrastructure, and rates have yet to produce clear differentiation. Late nominations, candidate statements, or preference flows could shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$3,042结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLocal government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Incumbent Janet Gatehouse holds the leading trader consensus at 56.5% for the October 27, 2026 Sorell mayoral election, supported by her position as current mayor following the 2024 by-election. The fragmented field ahead of the September 7–21 nomination window leaves most other contenders priced near even money, with Kristian Horvath at 23% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 6.5%. Tasmania’s preferential voting system and lack of published polls or major campaign activity keep probabilities tightly bunched, as local issues around planning, infrastructure, and rates have yet to produce clear differentiation. Late nominations, candidate statements, or preference flows could shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
交易量
$3,042结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETIncumbent Janet Gatehouse holds the leading trader consensus at 56.5% for the October 27, 2026 Sorell mayoral election, supported by her position as current mayor following the 2024 by-election. The fragmented field ahead of the September 7–21 nomination window leaves most other contenders priced near even money, with Kristian Horvath at 23% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 6.5%. Tasmania’s preferential voting system and lack of published polls or major campaign activity keep probabilities tightly bunched, as local issues around planning, infrastructure, and rates have yet to produce clear differentiation. Late nominations, candidate statements, or preference flows could shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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