PP leads Cádiz projections at roughly 32% vote share for the November 29 general election, ahead of PSOE near 27% and Vox around 21%, reflecting the party's stronger national polling average and Andalusian momentum since the 2023 contest. Recent candidate lists headed by figures such as María José García-Pelayo and cross-party Senate coordination have reinforced PP positioning, while PSOE support has softened in regional surveys. With eight seats at stake and PP forecast to take three, traders assign the highest implied probability to a PP plurality. Lower odds for PSOE and fringe lists align with limited recent shifts in local or national data that would alter the current ordering before election day.