Consistent polling averages from multiple private firms project that Spain’s centre-right PP and far-right Vox would together secure 186–214 seats in the November 29 snap election, comfortably above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority. The early vote, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after parliament rejected housing decrees amid rising public concern over rents, has coincided with Vox nearly doubling its projected representation while the PSOE-led left bloc trails. Although one state-run CIS survey showed the Socialists ahead, the broader set of recent surveys places the combined right-wing vote share above 50 percent. Traders therefore assign an 85.5 percent implied probability to a PP-Vox majority, reflecting the current seat projections and limited time remaining before polling day.