Recent polling averages project the PSOE at 112-114 seats in the November 29 snap election, placing the party near the center of the leading 108-113 bracket amid a fragmented left and stronger PP-Vox performance. The contest remains tight because private surveys show PSOE vote shares around 27% with wide provincial ranges under D’Hondt rules, while the CIS barometer stands as a clear outlier favoring higher Socialist totals. Campaign dynamics, including housing decrees, regional strongholds in Andalusia, and left-wing vote splitting between Sumar and the new Broad Front, continue to influence final positioning. Trader consensus reflects these converging but uncertain inputs ahead of the vote.