Recent polling averages place Vox near 18.7–19%, with individual surveys from late October through November 9 ranging from 17.5% (SW Demoscopia) to 19.9% (IMOP), directly supporting the 18–20% outcome as the trader consensus. Vox has held steady after a modest one-point dip linked to the late-October Urda rail incident and subsequent transport minister resignation, while retaining gains of roughly six points over its 12.4% share in 2023. With the November 29 snap election now 17 days away and the official campaign beginning shortly, the narrow band of recent results across multiple pollsters has kept higher or lower bins at lower implied probabilities.