Major AI copyright disputes, including New York Times v. OpenAI and author class actions against Anthropic and Meta, remain stalled at the district court or early appeals stage after fair use rulings on large language model training and recent Ninth Circuit dismissals of DMCA claims in code-generation cases. The Supreme Court already denied certiorari in March 2026 on the Thaler human-authorship question for purely AI-generated works, and no new petitions on core training or output issues are pending. Lower-court timelines, the absence of circuit splits on transformative use, and the typical pace of intellectual property appeals make a grant before December 2026 improbable absent an unusually accelerated escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
11% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case concerning artificial intelligence and United States copyright law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Major AI copyright disputes, including New York Times v. OpenAI and author class actions against Anthropic and Meta, remain stalled at the district court or early appeals stage after fair use rulings on large language model training and recent Ninth Circuit dismissals of DMCA claims in code-generation cases. The Supreme Court already denied certiorari in March 2026 on the Thaler human-authorship question for purely AI-generated works, and no new petitions on core training or output issues are pending. Lower-court timelines, the absence of circuit splits on transformative use, and the typical pace of intellectual property appeals make a grant before December 2026 improbable absent an unusually accelerated escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case concerning artificial intelligence and United States copyright law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$256结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case concerning artificial intelligence and United States copyright law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Major AI copyright disputes, including New York Times v. OpenAI and author class actions against Anthropic and Meta, remain stalled at the district court or early appeals stage after fair use rulings on large language model training and recent Ninth Circuit dismissals of DMCA claims in code-generation cases. The Supreme Court already denied certiorari in March 2026 on the Thaler human-authorship question for purely AI-generated works, and no new petitions on core training or output issues are pending. Lower-court timelines, the absence of circuit splits on transformative use, and the typical pace of intellectual property appeals make a grant before December 2026 improbable absent an unusually accelerated escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case concerning artificial intelligence and United States copyright law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A case qualifies if at least one of its claims or defenses, as described in the petition for certiorari or in the lower court's decision under review, concerns any of the following: (1) whether using copyrighted works to train, develop, or fine-tune an artificial intelligence model infringes copyright or is fair use; (2) whether outputs generated by an artificial intelligence model infringe copyright, or who is liable for such infringement; (3) whether works created in whole or in part by an artificial intelligence system are eligible for copyright protection, or who may be their author; or (4) any other claim under Title 17 of the United States Code, including the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, that arises from the training or development of an artificial intelligence model or from its outputs. An artificial intelligence model means any system that learns from data or generates content, including machine-learning and generative AI models such as large language, image, audio, and video models; the petition or decision does not need to use the words "artificial intelligence" or "AI". A grant limited to a procedural, jurisdictional, or remedial question in a qualifying case will count. A case in which an artificial intelligence developer is a party but no claim or defense concerns the matters listed above will not qualify.
Granting certiorari means an order granting a petition for a writ of certiorari, including certiorari before judgment. An order that grants certiorari, vacates the lower court's judgment, and remands without further review (a GVR order) will not qualify. Denials of certiorari, orders inviting the Solicitor General to file a brief, relisting of a petition, and rulings on emergency applications or stays will not qualify. A qualifying case does not need to be pending before the Court at the time this market is created, and a qualifying grant will resolve this market to "Yes" even if the case is later dismissed, settled, or otherwise removed from the Court's docket.
The grant must appear on the Supreme Court's official orders list or docket dated on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; the date of the Court's order governs, regardless of when reporting confirms it. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided by the deadline to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States (https://www.supremecourt.gov), including its orders lists and case dockets; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$256结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETMajor AI copyright disputes, including New York Times v. OpenAI and author class actions against Anthropic and Meta, remain stalled at the district court or early appeals stage after fair use rulings on large language model training and recent Ninth Circuit dismissals of DMCA claims in code-generation cases. The Supreme Court already denied certiorari in March 2026 on the Thaler human-authorship question for purely AI-generated works, and no new petitions on core training or output issues are pending. Lower-court timelines, the absence of circuit splits on transformative use, and the typical pace of intellectual property appeals make a grant before December 2026 improbable absent an unusually accelerated escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题