James Talarico has sustained a narrow polling lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the final days before the November 3 Texas U.S. Senate election, with multiple surveys placing the Democrat ahead or within the margin of error. Talarico’s consistent fundraising edge, exceeding $140 million overall and setting quarterly records, has supported extensive advertising and ground efforts against a Trump-endorsed opponent who defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the GOP primary. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up, reflecting Texas’s long Republican dominance in statewide races since 1994 alongside recent Democratic gains in suburban areas and record early voting turnout. High outside spending and Paxton’s primary divisions have kept the race competitive, with traders tracking polling aggregates and turnout signals ahead of election night results that will determine Senate control.