The upcoming Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the dominant near-term factor, with recent University of Houston and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys showing a statistical tie or slight Paxton edge that underscores internal GOP divisions. Democratic nominee James Talarico secured his party's nod after a competitive primary, and head-to-head general election polls indicate he leads both potential Republican opponents by narrow margins amid strong urban and suburban turnout potential. Texas's longstanding Republican registration advantage and historical Senate outcomes keep the race within the current narrow trader consensus range, though post-runoff clarity on the GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle polling shifts could widen the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$204,518 交易量
$204,518 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
53%
民主党
47%
$204,518 交易量
$204,518 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$112,887 交易量
53%
民主党
$91,631 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The upcoming Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the dominant near-term factor, with recent University of Houston and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys showing a statistical tie or slight Paxton edge that underscores internal GOP divisions. Democratic nominee James Talarico secured his party's nod after a competitive primary, and head-to-head general election polls indicate he leads both potential Republican opponents by narrow margins amid strong urban and suburban turnout potential. Texas's longstanding Republican registration advantage and historical Senate outcomes keep the race within the current narrow trader consensus range, though post-runoff clarity on the GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle polling shifts could widen the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$204,518结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The upcoming Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the dominant near-term factor, with recent University of Houston and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys showing a statistical tie or slight Paxton edge that underscores internal GOP divisions. Democratic nominee James Talarico secured his party's nod after a competitive primary, and head-to-head general election polls indicate he leads both potential Republican opponents by narrow margins amid strong urban and suburban turnout potential. Texas's longstanding Republican registration advantage and historical Senate outcomes keep the race within the current narrow trader consensus range, though post-runoff clarity on the GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle polling shifts could widen the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$204,518结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The upcoming Republican primary runoff on May 26 between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the dominant near-term factor, with recent University of Houston and Texas Public Opinion Research surveys showing a statistical tie or slight Paxton edge that underscores internal GOP divisions. Democratic nominee James Talarico secured his party's nod after a competitive primary, and head-to-head general election polls indicate he leads both potential Republican opponents by narrow margins amid strong urban and suburban turnout potential. Texas's longstanding Republican registration advantage and historical Senate outcomes keep the race within the current narrow trader consensus range, though post-runoff clarity on the GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics, and late-cycle polling shifts could widen the gap before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题