Tennessee's Republican-controlled legislature passed and Governor Bill Lee signed a new congressional map on May 6, 2026, redrawing the Memphis-based 9th District to dilute its long-standing Democratic advantage and create a projected Republican-leaning seat. This redistricting effort, which traders view as the primary catalyst for the current 81.5% Republican implied probability, has prompted incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen to end his reelection bid, leaving a crowded Democratic primary on August 6 that includes state Representative Justin Pearson. State Senator Brent Taylor has emerged as the leading Republican contender. Democrats filed a federal lawsuit challenging the boundaries, but the market assigns only 14.5% odds to their retention amid the altered electoral math and August primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,205 交易量
$25,205 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
82%
民主党
15%
$25,205 交易量
$25,205 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$13,038 交易量
82%
民主党
$12,167 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's Republican-controlled legislature passed and Governor Bill Lee signed a new congressional map on May 6, 2026, redrawing the Memphis-based 9th District to dilute its long-standing Democratic advantage and create a projected Republican-leaning seat. This redistricting effort, which traders view as the primary catalyst for the current 81.5% Republican implied probability, has prompted incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen to end his reelection bid, leaving a crowded Democratic primary on August 6 that includes state Representative Justin Pearson. State Senator Brent Taylor has emerged as the leading Republican contender. Democrats filed a federal lawsuit challenging the boundaries, but the market assigns only 14.5% odds to their retention amid the altered electoral math and August primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$25,205结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's Republican-controlled legislature passed and Governor Bill Lee signed a new congressional map on May 6, 2026, redrawing the Memphis-based 9th District to dilute its long-standing Democratic advantage and create a projected Republican-leaning seat. This redistricting effort, which traders view as the primary catalyst for the current 81.5% Republican implied probability, has prompted incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen to end his reelection bid, leaving a crowded Democratic primary on August 6 that includes state Representative Justin Pearson. State Senator Brent Taylor has emerged as the leading Republican contender. Democrats filed a federal lawsuit challenging the boundaries, but the market assigns only 14.5% odds to their retention amid the altered electoral math and August primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,205结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's Republican-controlled legislature passed and Governor Bill Lee signed a new congressional map on May 6, 2026, redrawing the Memphis-based 9th District to dilute its long-standing Democratic advantage and create a projected Republican-leaning seat. This redistricting effort, which traders view as the primary catalyst for the current 81.5% Republican implied probability, has prompted incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen to end his reelection bid, leaving a crowded Democratic primary on August 6 that includes state Representative Justin Pearson. State Senator Brent Taylor has emerged as the leading Republican contender. Democrats filed a federal lawsuit challenging the boundaries, but the market assigns only 14.5% odds to their retention amid the altered electoral math and August primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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