Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1% 概率
$30,017 交易量
$30,017 交易量
2026-12-31
1% 概率
$30,017 交易量
$30,017 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$30,017结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$30,017结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETTrump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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